Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing a 75% chance that Democrats sweep the US midterm elections, according to a Cointelegraph report published Nov 3, 2026. The article frames these odds around key races that matter to the crypto industry. Voters went to the polls on Tuesday, and traders on these platforms had been placing bets on the result for months.
Those 75% odds arrived only days after prediction markets got Brazil's runoff election wrong. That recent error is the reason to treat the midterm odds with care. A market price shows what traders expect. It does not tell you the result.
Cointelegraph's piece was written by staff writer Isabelle Castro and edited by Ana Paula Pereira. It was later updated with comments from Talos, but the text available here does not show what Talos said. It also does not name the individual races or give a final count. Neither is known from this report.
For anyone already holding a perpetual position on Bitget, Bybit, MEXC or OKX, this report changes nothing directly. It says nothing about funding rates, trading fees or liquidity on any of these exchanges. Prediction market odds are not an input to how perp funding is calculated. Any effect would have to show up later in the funding and fee data itself, and this story contains none.
Source: cointelegraph — US midterms: Prediction markets favor Democrats in key crypto races